A program with multiple national championships and numerous Final Four appearances is back here again, facing off against a program with dreams of repeating its storied 1985 run to the national title. North Carolina is in the Final Four for the second consecutive season, hoping not to repeat its poor performance against Kansas last year. The Tar Heels came into the season as the most talented team in the country, and despite a few bumps in the road along the way, they are right where they expected to be in early April. Villanova has been one of the most impressive teams throughout the NCAA Tournament, bouncing back from a couple of slip-ups late in the year to dominate its opposition in the Big Dance -- as well as playing in the best game of the tournament so far, against Pittsburgh.
North Carolina has the talent advantage across the board, but the Tar Heels do have some weaknesses that they need to shore up if they want to defeat the upstart Wildcats. First, one of UNC's problems all season has been its inability to contain opposing point guards that can get into the lane and score. Unfortunately for them, Villanova is filled with them. Corey Fisher is one of the best penetrators left in the Tournament, and Scottie Reynolds can drive past most defenders. Ty Lawson will have to play lock-down defense on his man, while Wayne Ellington will also have to be sure to keep Reynolds or Reggie Redding on the perimeter. Dante Cunningham will be a match-up problem for whoever North Carolina assigns to him. Tyler Hansbrough and Deon Thompson are more comfortable defending around the basket. The Tar Heels will need to contain Cunningham, both in the post and when he steps out for jumpers. Offensively, North Carolina has to push the pace and try to get the ball inside as much as possible. DeJuan Blair did not get the ball enough in the Elite Eight against 'Nova, but when he did, he was effective. Hansbrough, Thompson and Ed Davis need to take advantage of that.
For Villanova, the Wildcats have to continue doing what they have been doing to get here: attack, attack, attack. They have the quickness advantage on the perimeter, and will be able to get into the lane at will against the sometimes suspect defense of Lawson, Ellington and co. Reynolds has to get going early; when he struggles shooting the ball from the perimeter, the entire offense slows down. When he is hitting his shots, it opens up the lane for him and Fisher to drive, and then Cunningham can do his thing down low. It also opens up the three-point arc for marksman Corey Stokes to knock down triples. Defensively, there is obviously one key element to beating North Carolina: containing Ty Lawson. Reynolds and Fisher are solid but undersized guards who could struggle to keep up with the quickness and strength of Lawson. Redding might be the best bet to stop Lawson, but he might have to stick Ellington or Danny Green because of his size. Inside, Shane Clark and Cunningham have done an admirable job defending the post, but UNC's trio of post players is an entirely different animal. They will need to keep Hansbrough under wraps, and also not allow Thompson or Davis to crash the offensive boards and get easy baskets.
This is going to be a fast-paced, high-scoring affair from the outset. Both teams love to push the tempo and get scoring opportunities in transition. For Villanova, that is what has worked all season. Unfortunately, North Carolina is the best in the country when it comes to transition basketball. Lawson is nearly impossible to stop in the open court, and Ellington and Green are excellent at filling the lanes and knocking down rhythm three-pointers. Unless Villanova gets hot from the three-point arc, it looks like UNC will be headed to the national championship game.
Prediction: North Carolina 83, Villanova 75
Friday, April 3, 2009
Connecticut vs. Michigan State Preview
Two of the best programs in the last decade face-off for the opportunity to go to the national championship and add to both teams' storied traditions. Connecticut was near the top of the rankings all season long, looking like a national championship threat throughout the year. The Huskies struggled down the stretch after losing Jerome Dyson to injury, but they bounced back in the NCAA Tournament -- possibly playing the best basketball in the entire tourney. Michigan State was inconsistent for much of the season, but tournament-tested Tom Izzo had the Spartans ready for the Big Dance. They barely beat USC and Kansas, but then dominated Louisville in the Elite Eight and now get to play the Final Four in nearby Detroit.
If UConn is going to defeat the Spartans and head to the title game, it will have to do several things. First, it will need to keep Michigan State off the offensive glass. The Spartans thrive off of second-chance opportunities, and the Huskies need to limit those chances. Luckily, 7-3 Hasheem Thabeet and double-double machine Jeff Adrien are two of the best interior rebounders in the country. Also defensively, Stanley Robinson will have to continue his role as a defensive stopper against one of the more versatile players left in the Tournament, Raymar Morgan. Morgan is an inside-outside threat who is tough to defend. On the perimeter, the Husky guards have to contain Big Ten Player of the Year Kalin Lucas. He is unbelievably quick with the ball and can get into the lane on anyone. Offensively, the Huskies need to hit their outside shots. A.J. Price is their only consistent outside shooter, but Kemba Walker and Craig Austrie have to step up and knock down a few jumpers. If Jerome Dyson plays at all, that will provide an immediate lift for their perimeter scoring. Inside, Jeff Adrien has to continue to knock down foul-line and mid-range jumpers; he is more physical than either Morgan or Delvon Roe and needs to take advantage of that. The biggest thing for Connecticut might be staying out of foul trouble; Michigan State has a slew of big guys to throw at the Huskies and will not be afraid to go deep into its bench.
On the other side, Michigan State has to take advantage of its depth, both inside and on the perimeter. The Spartans can go five or six deep on the interior, and might need to use all those players in order to get Thabeet, Adrien and Gavin Edwards into foul trouble. Also defensively, the Spartans have to slow down Price. Once he gets hot from the perimeter, he can carry UConn to a victory on the back of a 30-point day. Lucas and defensive specialist Travis Walton will be responsible for keeping him in check. An X-factor for Connecticut is Kemba Walker; Michigan State will have to counter with the quickness of Lucas or the size of Durrell Summers and Chris Allen. Offensively, the Spartans have to try to bring Thabeet away from the basket. Goran Suton can hit the mid-range jumper and might need to knock down a few of them in order for Thabeet not to be an eraser at the rim. The outside shooting of Michigan State will be key as well. The Spartans, like Connecticut, are not a great shooting team, but Allen, Summers and Lucas will have to spread the court and hit three-pointers.
The difference in the game will be Connecticut's size and talent edge inside. I'm not sure Suton will be able to guard Thabeet, and he should be disciplined enough to stay out of foul trouble. Additionally, the Huskies are dominant on the defensive glass, which doesn't bode well for an offense predicated on second-chance baskets.
Prediction: Connecticut 68, Michigan State 63
If UConn is going to defeat the Spartans and head to the title game, it will have to do several things. First, it will need to keep Michigan State off the offensive glass. The Spartans thrive off of second-chance opportunities, and the Huskies need to limit those chances. Luckily, 7-3 Hasheem Thabeet and double-double machine Jeff Adrien are two of the best interior rebounders in the country. Also defensively, Stanley Robinson will have to continue his role as a defensive stopper against one of the more versatile players left in the Tournament, Raymar Morgan. Morgan is an inside-outside threat who is tough to defend. On the perimeter, the Husky guards have to contain Big Ten Player of the Year Kalin Lucas. He is unbelievably quick with the ball and can get into the lane on anyone. Offensively, the Huskies need to hit their outside shots. A.J. Price is their only consistent outside shooter, but Kemba Walker and Craig Austrie have to step up and knock down a few jumpers. If Jerome Dyson plays at all, that will provide an immediate lift for their perimeter scoring. Inside, Jeff Adrien has to continue to knock down foul-line and mid-range jumpers; he is more physical than either Morgan or Delvon Roe and needs to take advantage of that. The biggest thing for Connecticut might be staying out of foul trouble; Michigan State has a slew of big guys to throw at the Huskies and will not be afraid to go deep into its bench.
On the other side, Michigan State has to take advantage of its depth, both inside and on the perimeter. The Spartans can go five or six deep on the interior, and might need to use all those players in order to get Thabeet, Adrien and Gavin Edwards into foul trouble. Also defensively, the Spartans have to slow down Price. Once he gets hot from the perimeter, he can carry UConn to a victory on the back of a 30-point day. Lucas and defensive specialist Travis Walton will be responsible for keeping him in check. An X-factor for Connecticut is Kemba Walker; Michigan State will have to counter with the quickness of Lucas or the size of Durrell Summers and Chris Allen. Offensively, the Spartans have to try to bring Thabeet away from the basket. Goran Suton can hit the mid-range jumper and might need to knock down a few of them in order for Thabeet not to be an eraser at the rim. The outside shooting of Michigan State will be key as well. The Spartans, like Connecticut, are not a great shooting team, but Allen, Summers and Lucas will have to spread the court and hit three-pointers.
The difference in the game will be Connecticut's size and talent edge inside. I'm not sure Suton will be able to guard Thabeet, and he should be disciplined enough to stay out of foul trouble. Additionally, the Huskies are dominant on the defensive glass, which doesn't bode well for an offense predicated on second-chance baskets.
Prediction: Connecticut 68, Michigan State 63
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