Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Sweet 16 Breakdown: East Region

Favorite: Kentucky. With overall No.1 seed Kansas knocked out in the second round, Kentucky is the highest-seeded team left in the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats have dominated so far, beating East Tennessee State by 29 in the first round and then rolling past Wake Forest by 30 points in the second round. They shot nearly 52 percent in the first round and better than 60 percent against Wake Forest, hitting a combined 22 three-pointers in the two games. Not surprisingly, John Wall has been the primary catalyst in the wins, averaging 15.5 points and 9.0 assists in two games. His ability to create his own shot whenever he wants is uncanny. However, the Wildcats are getting plenty of help from other players. DeMarcus Cousins had a poor opening round, but bounced back in the second round. He might be the best big man in the country. Eric Bledsoe hit eight three-pointers against ETSU, and then scored 13 in the second round. Patrick Patterson had 22 in the first round, but put up only four points against Wake Forest. Evan Darius Miller has been effective, going for 20 points and nine boards in the second round. With Daniel Orton blocking shots and rebounding off the bench, this team is rolling. Against Cornell, Kentucky needs to continue to defend the three-point shot, as opponents have hit just 6-of-32 three-point attempts. However, the Big Red have been supremely efficient offensively and can get hot.

Cinderella: Cornell. The story of the Tournament, Cornell has put on a tremendous display of offensive execution in the first two rounds. They have scored 165 points in only 119 possessions, which equals an unbelievable 1.39 points per possession. What makes that even more impressive is that it came against two of the best defenses in the country, Temple and Wisconsin. The Big Red are shooting 60-for-102 from the field in the NCAA Tournament, and have hit 17 three-pointers. Louis Dale has upped his scoring numbers, averaging 23.5 points and dishing out 5.0 assists. Ryan Wittman has continued his usual offensive prowess, hitting seven three-pointers and averaging 22.0 points in the first two games. Jeff Foote has provided inside balance, averaging 14.0 points and 7.0 rebounds, while Chris Wroblewski is putting up 10.5 per game. Kentucky will not go down as easy as Temple and Wisconsin did, due to the Wildcats' tremendous talent and athleticism, plus the fact that they are more of an up-tempo team than the first two opponents. However, if the Big Red continue to perform unbelievably well at the offensive end of the floor, they could give Kentucky a game.

Most intriguing personnel match-up: West Virginia’s Da’Sean Butler vs. Washington’s Quincy Pondexter. Two of the best forwards left in the Tournament, these two will battle all night. Butler might be the most clutch player in the country, hitting six game-winning shots this season. He is versatile offensively, with the ability to score in the lane and from the perimeter. Butler hasn’t shot the ball well in the Big Dance, but he still managed to average 18.5 points in the first weekend. Pondexter has blossomed into an absolute star this season in the Pac-10, carrying the Huskies offensively throughout the year. He is very athletic and can finish in transition with the best of them. He hit the game-winning shot against Marquette in the first round, and followed that up with another 18-point effort against New Mexico. West Virginia has struggled to contain penetration at times this season, and Pondexter is effective at getting to the rim and drawing fouls or finishing. On the other end, Pondexter can’t let Butler get hot.

First-weekend knockout that will be here next year: New Mexico. There are certainly a few teams that could win a couple of games next season, including Temple and Missouri. However, the Lobos are poised for another excellent campaign and won’t be upset in the second round. Darington Hobson will return as the west coast’s Evan Turner, while Dairese Gary is a physical point guard who can create. Philip McDonald can shoot. New Mexico will miss Roman Martinez, but four-star center Alex Kirk will provide inside balance, something the Lobos lacked this season. Kendall Williams is another solid recruit, and A.J. Hardemann will return as a banger on the inside. With another season on their belts, the Mountain West champs could find themselves in the Sweet Sixteen.

All-First Weekend Team:

  • Guard- Louis Dale, Cornell: 23.5 points, 5.0 assists
  • Guard- Eric Bledsoe, Kentucky: 21.0 points, 3.0 assists
  • Forward- Da’Sean Butler, West Virginia: 18.5 points, 7.0 rebounds
  • Forward- Quincy Pondexter, Washington: 18.0 points, 8.0 rebounds
  • Forward- Jon Leuer, Wisconsin: 21.5 points, 6.0 rebounds
  • Sixth Man- Dairese Gary, New Mexico: 20.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, 3.5 assists

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Sweet 16 Breakdown: West Region

Favorite: Syracuse. Nothing in the first weekend of the Tournament could have possibly changed your mind about the Orange being the favorite to come out of this region. They were one of the best teams in the bracket, blowing out both Vermont and Gonzaga by an averaging of 22.5 points. The two teams combined to shoot 8-for-43 from three-point range, proving that the way to beat this Syracuse 2-3 zone is not to constantly jack from behind the arc. Syracuse has been its usual balanced self. Wesley Johnson has been the key cog for Syracuse, averaging 24.5 points and 10.0 rebounds in the first two games, including a 31-point, 14-rebound effort against Gonzaga. Andy Rautins has provided outside production, hitting eight three-pointers and averaging 17.5 points per game. Rick Jackson is averaging 8.5 rebounds on the inside, while Kris Joseph is not thriving as effectively since being thrust into the starting lineup. Arinze Onuaku is likely to return from injury against Butler, which will put Joseph back on the bench. Brandon Triche has scored in double-figures in each of the first two games, while Scoop Jardine is averaging 11.5 points off the bench. The Orange will have to handle a half-court affair against Butler, and will need to keep the Bulldogs off the free-throw line.

Cinderella: Xavier. While Butler might be more of a true mid-major sleeper, Xavier is the lower seed and has a better chance of actually making a run to Indianapolis. The Musketeers have won a couple of games at slower paces than they would prefer, and now get a chance to push the ball against Kansas State. Xavier held Minnesota to below 31 percent shooting from the field, dominating the second half against the Golden Gophers and winning by 11. In the second round, the Musketeers hit 50 percent from three and 48 percent from the field, holding off Pittsburgh late in a three-point win. Jordan Crawford has been one of the best players in the Tournament so far, averaging 27.5 points and 6.0 rebounds in two games. Jason Love and Jamel McLean have been providing inside production with points and rebounds, while Terrell Holloway has turned the ball over just three times, while averaging 9.5 points and 3.5 assists. Dante Jackson is a solid backcourt partner, hitting threes and playing defense. He can also handle the ball. The Musketeers lost their first match-up to Kansas State by 15, but they are a completely different team now. Someone besides Crawford needs to step up offensively, though, and Xavier will need to slow down Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen.

Most intriguing personnel match-up: Syracuse’s Wesley Johnson vs. Butler’s Gordon Hayward. If Jordan Crawford and Jacob Pullen end up defending each other, that battle immediately moves to the top of the match-up rankings. However, I expect Frank Martin to stick physical 6-5 forward Dominique Sutton on Crawford. Anyway, even though Syracuse plays a zone defense and Johnson will therefore not truly guard Hayward, this match-up will be fun to watch. Hayward is one of the best forwards in the country, with the ability to get to the rim and also hit the three with consistency. He is also a very good rebounder who draws fouls at a high rate. Johnson has been one of the best players in the country, and has really come on strong in the NCAA Tournament. He is coming off of a dominant performance against Gonzaga, when he had 31 points and 14 rebounds. Hayward will need to contain Johnson if Butler is going to have any shot of winning this game.

First-weekend knockout that will be here next year: Pittsburgh, Florida. There is a lot of potential in this region heading into 2010-11. Gonzaga loses just Matt Bouldin from its starting lineup, while BYU loses frontcourt players Chris Miles and Jonathan Tavernari. Florida State will miss Ryan Reid, but the Seminoles have a very good recruiting class coming in next year. UTEP returns every player on its roster from this season’s Conference-USA champion. Pittsburgh and Florida will be top-15 teams, though. The Panthers lose only Jermaine Dixon from a team that finished second in the Big East despite being extremely inexperienced. Jamie Dixon also brings in three guards who will provide scoring punch. Florida will bring back all five starters, and welcome dominant inside force Patric Young into the fold. Casey Prather will provide athleticism on the wing.

All-First Weekend Team:

  • Guard- Jordan Crawford, Xavier: 27.5 points
  • Guard- Jacob Pullen, Kansas State: 24.5 points, 2.5 assists
  • Guard- Jimmer Fredette, BYU: 29.0 points, 4.0 assists
  • Guard- Shelvin Mack, Butler: 18.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists
  • Forward- Wesley Johnson, Syracuse: 24.5 points, 10.0 rebounds
  • Sixth Man- Andy Rautins, Syracuse: 17.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists