Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Big 12: It's Always Tougher at the Bottom

Note: This article also appears at Big12-fans.com.

Does Missouri want to matter this season? How about Texas Tech? Or Nebraska?

Frankly, that question can be asked to any team in the Big Twelve outside of Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State—the projected top five teams in the league. Other than those five teams, there is not one team in the conference that looks remotely ready to challenge for an NCAA Tournament berth. In other words, the bottom seven in the Big 12 is going to be the worst bottom half (plus one) of any major conference in the country.


There is a huge gap between the contenders and the pretenders in the conference. It is fairly clear-cut as to who are the haves and have-nots this season. If a team outside the top five ends up making noise, it is going to be considered a surprise and a minor upset.

The obvious top team in the conference is Kansas. They are absolutely loaded and are one of three legitimate national championship contenders. Brandon Rush and Julian Wright could become superstars in their sophomore years, while guards Mario Chalmers, Russell Robinson, and Sherron Collins give the Jayhawks plenty of firepower in the backcourt. Up front, freshman Darrell Arthur joins Sasha Kaun and C.J. Giles to provide balance down low. If they don’t win the conference, I’d be shocked.

After them, the nearly unanimous #2 is Texas A&M. However, even though the Aggies have the best shot to give Kansas a run for their money, I don’t see them pushing the Jayhawks for the regular season title. That’s not a knock on A&M—Kansas is simply too good. Acie Law and Joseph Jones form one of the best inside-outside combos in the country, while Josh Carter and Dominique Kirk are two more solid options on the perimeter. Marlon Pompey and Antanas Kavalauskas give Jones help down low. If the Aggies find ways to score more consistently, they will be a threat to go deep in the Big Dance.

Texas looks to be the next in line after A&M. The Longhorns are similar to last year’s North Carolina team—they lost six of their top seven scorers, but bring in an outstanding recruiting class. Returnee A.J. Abrams will anchor the backcourt and could have a breakout season. McDonald’s All-American D.J. Augustin will likely start next to him at the other guard spot. My pick for National Freshman of the Year, Kevin Durant, is going to be an outstanding player on the wing. He is expected to be a star immediately. Damion James, another Top-20 recruit, will also be in the lineup come November. In addition, two Top-20 centers are going to be in the fold for Texas, not to mention returnee Connor Atchley. Don’t cry for Texas.

Oklahoma State and Kansas State round out the teams that can potentially make the NCAA Tournament come March. The Cowboys have great potential although they only went 6-10 in Big 12 play last season. JamesOn Curry is a very good scorer on the wing and will be joined by McDonald’s All-American Obi Muonelo. Marcus Dove is an excellent defender. Mario Boggan is an all-conference player on the inside, and David Monds is solid. The key will be point guard play. Jamaal Brown and Byron Eaton are not terrible, but they were extremely inconsistent last season. If they provide solid ball-handling and can distribute the ball well, watch out for Oklahoma State. Kansas State is the big story this offseason, mainly as a result of the hiring of new coach Bob Huggins. He is expected to instill toughness into the Wildcats immediately. Their season, however, may hinge on the eligibility of star Cartier Martin. He was suspended in the offseason, but should be able to play when the season starts. He might be the best player in the conference. Lance Harris and David Hoskins are two other very solid scorers on the wing that will take some of the pressure off of Martin. Newcomers Blake Young and Jason Bennett are expected to make immediate impacts. Young was one of the top Junior College guards last season, while the 7'3" Bennett was a top-ten center in high school. If the Wildcats get consistent inside play, they should be the fifth Big 12 team in the Big Dance.

After that, the competition for postseason play looks bleak. Oklahoma is falling rapidly with the loss of three freshmen and coach Kelvin Sampson; Baylor is still trying to get their program back to normalcy after a tumultuous couple of seasons; Iowa State and Colorado look downright pitiful; Missouri is entering a new era under coach Mike Anderson; Nebraska loses five of their top seven scorers and don’t bring in anyone of note; while Texas Tech might be the best chance the conference has for a lower-tier team to make a run.

The Red Raiders are ranked in the top 30 by Andy Katz in his latest rankings—I honestly have no idea what he was thinking when he made that decision. Yes, Martin Zeno and Jarrius Jackson form a fantastic backcourt, but that didn’t lead them to the postseason last season and I don’t see them making the Field of 65 this season unless Darryl Dora or someone else steps up in the frontcourt.

Baylor could be a potential sleeper, but they went 4-12 last season so I don’t trust them. However, a slew of guards return for the Bears, including Aaron Bruce and Curtis Jerrells, two very good all-around players. Henry Dugat is an excellent shooter. McDonald’s All-American Demon “Tweety” Carter will also help out right away on the perimter. Until they prove they can win ball games, though, I can’t see Baylor doing much.

Oklahoma has a decent returning cast, but their program seems like it is going to be sliding for a couple of years. Michael Neal is a very good shooter, while Nate Carter is a versatile forward. Austin Johnson and David Godbold also return on the perimeter. The Sooners lack a capable post player, though, which will end up being their Achilles’ heel all season long unless they find a go-to-guy down low.

The bottom four teams are going to be RPI killers for the top teams in the conference. Nebraska returns all-conference center Aleks Maric and a solid guard in Jamel White, but that’s it. Iowa State lost the star backcourt of Curtis Stinson and Will Blalock to the NBA Draft, and only return four players who averaged ten minutes or more per game. Rahshon Clark is a very good all-around player, while Jiri Hubalek is a decent center. JC transfer Corey McIntosh could be a surprise, though. Colorado has one of the better players in the country in Richard Roby, but the Buffaloes lost ten seniors, leaving the cupboard very bare. Missouri could steal a few games here and there because of new coach Mike Anderson, but as long as their go-to-guy is Marshall Brown, the Tigers aren’t going to be far from last place in the conference.

If you are optimistic about the Big 12’s chances for an overly successful season, you obviously did not read the above carefully. There is one national championship contender, a couple of Sweet Sixteen possibilities, and two more NCAA hopefuls. Then there are three teams that are hoping to make the NIT and four teams that are going to rotate out of the last-place spot throughout the season. The top half is not bad at all—it’s the bottom seven that is going to reflect poorly on the conference as a whole. As a result, it could end up costing the Big 12 an NCAA Tournament bid come March. Therefore, for the sake of everyone in the conference, teams 6-12 have to be somewhat competitive. And, frankly, I can’t see that happening. It could be a rough year in the Big 12—especially at the bottom.

Monday, August 21, 2006

Hey, Don't Forget These Guys

Division-1 transfers. The forgotten ones. Transfers are often overlooked when analyzing a team's prospects for the upcoming season. Everyone notices the new freshman recruits, but some people fail to remember about the transfers that had to sit out a season. However, transfers often have more of an immediate impact than freshmen as a result of the experience that they have. Just look at last season. Marco Killingsworth was one of the best big men in the country for Indiana. Don’t forget that he started at Auburn, though. What about Ryan Appleby? The part-time starter for Washington’s Sweet Sixteen team originally came from Florida. The list goes on. Charlotte’s De’Angelo Alexander, one of the best scorers in the Atlantic-10, was previously filling up buckets at Oklahoma. Ohio State might not have won the Big Ten title if not for Bowling Green transfer Ron Lewis. Louisville’s hopes this season bank on All-Big East big man David Padgett, who came over from Kansas two seasons ago. Derrick Byars (Virginia to Vanderbilt). Mohamed Abukar (Florida to San Diego State). Mohamed Kone (Kentucky to Valparaiso).The number of impact transfers always seems to outnumber the impact freshmen across the country. This season might be different with the new age-limit rule in the NBA. However, there is still an abundance of talented transfers ready to make people remember them.

J.R. Giddens (from Kansas)/Aaron Johnson (from Penn State), New Mexico: The buzz surrounding the Lobos this season is as loud as it has been since the days of Danny Granger, mainly as a result of these two newcomers. Giddens never really lived up to the hype he had while he was at Kansas, but might be able to return to his high school form with less attention on him. He is extremely athletic and can get hot from behind the arc. Johnson is going to be a go-to-guy on the interior for New Mexico. While at Penn State, he averaged nearly a double-double per game, leading the Big Ten in rebounding in 04-05. He is expected to control the paint for the Lobos in the upcoming season. If these two live up to the expectations they have coming in, watch out for New Mexico in the Mountain West.

Andrew Lavender, Xavier (from Oklahoma): The Atlantic-10 favorites will get an immediate starter with the addition of Lavender. Lavender started 28 of 32 games during his sophomore year at Oklahoma. He is not afraid to shoot the ball, and loves getting out and running the floor. He is a solid passer and has quick hands on the defensive end. His ability to knock down free throws will be key late in games. If he can distribute the ball to all of Xavier’s weapons, the diminutive point guard will be leading his new team to a conference title.

Mike Cook, Pittsburgh (from East Carolina): The knock on the Panthers the past few years is that they don’t have enough variety on the offensive end. Cook may have the ability to change that this season. He was a do-it-all type of player for East Carolina, leading the team in scoring at 15 points per game, and also pitching in 4 rebounds and 3.4 assists a contest. He is a tough, strong player that uses his size and strength at both ends of the floor. He is not a very good outside shooter, but he can get into the lane and finish. If he can provide scoring from the wing, Pitt might be able to make a run at the Final Four.

Toney Douglas, Florida State (from Auburn): The Seminoles are getting mention in several preseason Top 25s and the addition of Douglas is a main reason why. The 6-1 guard was an All-SEC performer and a freshman All-American in 04-05 but never really fit into Auburn’s style of play. He is a very good scorer and a solid rebounder for his size. He can fill it up in a variety of ways, and is a decent shooter from long-range. Douglas is a good athlete and is deceptively quick. Leonard Hamilton is lucky to have his services.

Dameon Mason, LSU (from Marquette):
The Tigers are another Final Four hopeful banking heavily on an incoming transfer. Mason is a very athletic wing who will form an outstanding scoring duo on the perimeter with forward Tasmin Mitchell. He is at his best when he is running the floor and getting into the lane for easy finishes. Mason is also a decent rebounder from the wing. He shot 52% from beyond arc in his first season at Marquette, but only 24% in 04-05. If he can find his outside shot again, LSU is a contender to make another deep run in the Tournament. The Tigers also get Texas Tech transfer Terry Martin, who will add to their depth on the wing.

Justin Hawkins (from Utah)/Martin Iti (from Charlotte)/Fred Peete (from Kansas State), New Mexico State: The Aggies are a threat in the WAC this season as a result of the influx of talent over the past two seasons. Last year, Elijah Ingram and Tyrone Nelson came into the program and made an immediate impact. This year, the trio of Hawkins, Iti, and Peete is expected to have a similar effect on the team. Hawkins is a swingman who can do a little bit of everything. He is a solid slasher-type who can score and rebound well. Iti is a very talented big man who has not developed into the player many thought he would be coming out of high school as the top-rated center. However, he is still a very good defender who is also efficient from the floor. Peete might be the best of the bunch. The 6-4 guard is a very good outside shooter who is also an above-average defender. Peete can also distribute the ball and is a good rebounder. This trio is going to make a huge impact for the Aggies.

Gary Ervin, Arkansas (from Mississippi State): With the loss of Ronnie Brewer and Jonathan Modica, the Razorbacks need someone to step up on the perimter. Ervin might be that guy. He is one of the fastest players with the ball in college basketball, although he sometimes plays out of control and inconsistently as a result. However, he is a good distributor and does not turn the ball over that much. Ervin is not much of a shooter, but can penetrate into the lane. He also has quick hands on defense. It will be interesting to see how he fits with Arkansas.

Justin Cerasoli, Mississippi (from Seton Hall): Another point guard transfer expected to make a big impact in the SEC. While at Seton Hall, Cerasoli shared the point guard role with Donald Copeland, but showed flashes of brilliance when he played. At 6-5, he has excellent size but also has a variety of talents, making him difficult to defend. He does not turn the ball over often and is a very good passer. Cerasoli has demonstrated the ability to score in the lane, and can also shoot the three. With the point guard job all his, Cerasoli could break out.

Gary Forbes, Massachusetts (from Virginia): Similarly to New Mexico and New Mexico State, the Minutemen are considered sleepers for the conference crown due to the incoming players. While UMass also gets Etienne Brower and Luke Bonner from Boston University and West Virginia, respectively, Forbes is the player that can change the Minutemen’s fortunes. He is an outstanding scorer who can fill it up from both inside and outside the arc. Some sources around the league say he has a chance to become the Atlantic-10 Player of the Year. If that is the case, there’s a chance that 06-07 could be a special season for UMass.

Cheyenne Moore, George Washington (from Clemson):
Yes, the Colonials lose J.R. Pinnock, Pops Mensah-Bonsu, Mike Hall, and Omar Williams, but GW fully expects to return to the NCAA Tournament. One of the reasons why is the addition of Moore. He is an outstanding athlete who can finish with the best of them in transition. In addition, he is a solid rebounder and distributor. He should make a great fit for the Colonials’ wide-open, fast-paced system.

Micah Downs, Gonzaga (from Kansas):
If there was ever a time for Gonzaga to have a McDonald’s All-American fall into their laps, this was it. With the loss of Adam Morrison, a scoring wing is exactly what they needed. Downs fits the profile. Much-heralded going into his freshman season, he never seemed to fit with the rest of the Jayhawks. He was known as a selfish player while in high school, and the lack of playing time at Kansas could have played a role in his transfer. Either way, he is still a very good shooter and scorer who could develop into a big-time scorer in the WCC. Downs will be eligible after the first semester.

Dion Dowell, Houston (from Texas): Tom Penders has the Cougars on the way up, and the addition of Dowell from in-state rival Texas is a big-time pick-up. Dowell was injured for part of last season, and then he decided to transfer after the playing time wasn’t increasing after his return. He is an athletic swingman who is a very good defender. He is also a solid scorer. After the beating that the Longhorns took at the hands of Duke last season, coach Rick Barnes said that Dowell—who was out with an injury at the time—was the one player who could have kept Texas in the game on the defensive end. That’s high praise. It will be interesting to see if Dowell lives up to that potential with the Cougars. He will eligible after the first semester.

Lawrence McKenzie, Minnesota (from Oklahoma): Another Oklahoma transfer, McKenzie is expected to step in right away for the Golden Gophers and contribute. He is an outstanding long-range shooter who can get hot from the outside and single-handedly keep his team in the game. He was a consistent scorer while with the Sooners and should increase his production with an expanded role with Minnesota. He does not contribute much besides scoring, but the Golden Gophers will be happy with similar numbers to the ones he had at Oklahoma. They’ll likely get more than that.

Dwight Brewington, Liberty (from Providence):
Every year, there seems to be a player that moves from a major-conference school to a mid-major and all of a sudden starts averaging 23 points per game. Brewington could be that guy this season—he is that good offensively. He averaged over 13 points per game in the Big East in 04-05 and suddenly left the team last November after saying he wanted to concentrate on academics. Liberty gladly welcomes him into their fold. Combine him with All-Big South guard Larry Blair, and you could be looking at 45-50 points per game from those two players. If that happens, watch out for the Flames in the Big South.

10 other transfers to keep an eye on:
Qwan Prowell (Furman to Auburn)- Good scorer and rebounder; he will help the Tigers’ frontcourt right away.
Trent Meachem (Dayton to Illinois)- Excellent outside shooter will contribute off the bench, giving Illini another solid all-around player.
Keith Butler (Temple to DePaul)- Will add depth and size on the interior; is a solid rebounder and defender.
Steve Hailey (Boston College to Iona)- Part-time starter for BC, will step in immediately for the Gaels.
Tyrelle Blair (Loyola (Chicago) to Boston College)- Big man is a solid rebounder and defender, and can also get some garbage baskets on the inside.
Ricky Lucas (George Washington to Stony Brook)- Has the potential to be a big-time scorer in the America East.
Antonio Kellog (Connecticut to San Francisco)- Kicked off the Huskies prior to the ’04 Tournament; will make immmediate impact on the Dons.
Jack McClinton (Siena to Miami (Fl.)- Will have to replace Guillermo Diaz; put up outstanding numbers in the MAAC.
Dominic McGuire (California to Fresno State)- 6-8 swingman can do it all; size and talent make him a tough match-up in the WAC.
Pat Ewing, Jr. (Indiana to Georgetown)- Adds to the Hoyas’ ridiculous frontcourt depth; will provide solid rebounding and all-around play.