Sunday, March 13, 2011

Final Bracket Breakdown

AS OF 5:00 P.M. ON SELECTION SUNDAY

No. 1: Ohio State, Kansas, Duke, Pittsburgh

No. 2: Notre Dame, San Diego State, North Carolina, Connecticut

No. 3: Florida, Texas, Kentucky, BYU

No. 4: Louisville, Purdue, Syracuse, Wisconsin

No. 5: West Virginia, Vanderbilt, Xavier, Texas A&M

No. 6: St. John’s, Arizona, Cincinnati, Georgetown

No. 7: Temple, Kansas State, UNLV, Old Dominion

No. 8: Washington, UCLA, George Mason, Utah State

No. 9: Missouri, Tennessee, Marquette, Butler

No. 10: Gonzaga, Florida State, Richmond, Villanova

No. 11: Michigan State, Illinois, Michigan, Penn State

No. 12: Colorado, Memphis, Virginia Tech, USC, Alabama, Georgia

No. 13: Belmont, Princeton, Oakland, Bucknell

No. 14: Morehead State, Indiana State, Long Island, Wofford

No. 15: Saint Peter’s, Northern Colorado, Akron, UC Santa Barbara

No. 16: UNC-Asheville, Boston University, Hampton, Arkansas-Little Rock, Texas-San Antonio, Alabama State

Breakdown by Conference

  • ACC (4): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech
  • Big East (11): Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Connecticut, Louisville, Syracuse, West Virginia, St. John’s, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Marquette, Villanova
  • Big Ten (7): Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Illinois, Michigan, Penn State
  • Big 12 (6): Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Missouri, Colorado
  • Pac-10 (4): Arizona, UCLA, Washington, USC
  • SEC (6): Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia
  • Atlantic-10 (3): Xavier, Temple, Richmond
  • Mountain West (3): BYU, San Diego State, UNLV
  • Colonial (2): Old Dominion, George Mason

One-Bid Conferences (22): America East (Boston University), Atlantic Sun (Belmont), Big Sky (Northern Colorado), Big South (UNC-Asheville), Big West (UC Santa Barbara), Conference-USA (Memphis), Horizon (Butler), Ivy (Princeton), MAC (Akron), MAAC (Saint Peter’s), MEAC (Hampton), Missouri Valley (Indiana State), Northeast (Long Island), Ohio Valley (Morehead State), Patriot (Bucknell), Southern (Wofford), Southland (Texas-San Antonio), Summit (Oakland), Sun Belt (Arkansas-Little Rock), SWAC (Alabama State), WAC (Utah State), West Coast (Gonzaga)

  • Last Four In: Virginia Tech, USC, Alabama, Georgia
  • Last Four Out: Saint Mary’s, Clemson, VCU, Harvard
  • Next Three Out: Boston College, UAB, Missouri State

Road to Selection Sunday

Happy Selection Sunday, folks. The most important date of the college basketball season is upon us. With about 14 hours left until the NCAA Tournament is revealed, the Field of 68 is almost filled. If Penn State or Dayton win their respective conference tournament titles later today, bubble teams across the nation will become even more nervous than they already are. The last two or three days of the major conference tournaments have made the teams going to the Big Dance up in the air, especially the last two spots or so.

For a look at who has helped or hurt themselves in the past couple of days, check out my Poppin’ Bubbles columns at CBSSports.com.

Here's my breakdown of the tournament:

  • ACC (3): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State
  • Big East (11): Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Louisville, Connecticut, St. John’s, West Virginia, Georgetown, Villanova, Cincinnati, Marquette
  • Big Ten (4): Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State
  • Big 12 (5): Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Missouri
  • Pac-10 (3): Arizona, UCLA, Washington
  • SEC (4): Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
  • Atlantic-10 (2): Xavier, Temple
  • Mountain West (3): BYU, San Diego State, UNLV
  • Colonial (2): Old Dominion, George Mason
  • West Coast (1): Gonzaga

Automatic bids from one-bid leagues: 21

That adds up to 59 teams, leaving nine spots still open.

The teams likely to receive bids are:

  • Richmond
  • Michigan
  • Illinois

Therefore, the teams in the mix for those final six bids are:

  • Clemson
  • Virginia Tech
  • Boston College
  • Colorado
  • Penn State
  • USC
  • Alabama
  • Georgia
  • VCU
  • Saint Mary’s
  • UAB
  • Missouri State
  • Harvard

Click here for a complete Bubble Breakdown.

Who gets in? Check out my complete projected bracket at 5:00 PM to find out.

Saturday, March 12, 2011

Who's In, Who's Out?

PRIOR TO GAMES ON SATURDAY, MARCH 12

After a week and a half of conference tournaments and four days of major conference tourneys, the field of 68 is beginning to take shape. According to our calculations, the breakdown is as follows:

Locks (There is no way these teams don't make the NCAA Tournament):

  • ACC (3): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State
  • Big East (11): Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Louisville, Connecticut, St. John’s, West Virginia, Georgetown, Villanova, Cincinnati, Marquette
  • Big Ten (4): Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State
  • Big 12 (5): Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Missouri
  • Pac-10 (3): Arizona, UCLA, Washington
  • SEC (4): Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
  • Atlantic-10 (2): Xavier, Temple
  • Mountain West (3): BYU, San Diego State, UNLV
  • Colonial (2): Old Dominion, George Mason
  • West Coast (1): Gonzaga

Automatic bids from one-bid leagues: 21

That adds up to 59 teams, leaving nine spots still open.

The teams fighting for those nine spots, realistically, are:

  • Clemson
  • Virginia Tech
  • Boston College
  • Michigan
  • Illinois
  • Penn State
  • Colorado
  • USC
  • Alabama
  • Georgia
  • Richmond
  • VCU
  • Saint Mary’s
  • Missouri State
  • Memphis
  • UAB

Out of this group, Richmond, Michigan, Illinois and Colorado are in the best shape, while Missouri State and UAB have a tenuous spot on the list.

Essentially, if you count Richmond, Michigan, Illinois and Colorado as likely to receive at-large bids, there are 12 teams fighting for five bids.

Pick five: Clemson, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Penn State, USC, Memphis, Alabama, Georgia, VCU, Saint Mary’s, UAB, Missouri State

As of right now, I’m leaning towards Clemson, Virginia Tech, Alabama, Georgia and Penn State.

Moreover, these teams have a few things to root for in the next couple of days. Starting today at 11:30 EST, Memphis plays UTEP for the Conference USA championship. If the Tigers win, they will get the automatic bid from the league and will no longer be fighting on the bubble. UTEP is out of the mix. In the WAC, Utah State is likely a lock no matter what happens in the conference title game. Therefore, bubblers are rooting heavily for the Aggies against Boise State. Meanwhile, in the Atlantic 10, either Dayton or Saint Joseph’s is on its way to the championship. Teams on the fence will be rooting for the winner of Richmond vs. Temple to beat one of them in the title game. Lastly, Harvard has a gaudy RPI and a decent win over Boston College – if the Crimson lose to Princeton in the Ivy playoff, they will get consideration.

It’s going to be a fun 30 hours or so.

Thursday, March 10, 2011

Bracket Breakdown

AS OF MARCH 10, 2011

Breakdown by Conference

  • ACC (4): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Boston College
  • Big East (11): Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Louisville, St. John’s, Connecticut, West Virginia, Georgetown, Villanova, Cincinnati, Marquette
  • Big Ten (6): Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State
  • Big 12 (6): Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Missouri, Colorado
  • Pac-10 (3): Arizona, UCLA, Washington
  • SEC (6): Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama
  • Atlantic-10 (3): Xavier, Temple, Richmond
  • Mountain West (3): BYU, San Diego State, UNLV
  • Colonial (3): George Mason, Old Dominion, VCU
  • West Coast (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary's

One-Bid Conferences (21): America East (Boston University), Atlantic Sun (Belmont), Big Sky (Northern Colorado), Big South (UNC-Asheville), Big West (Long Beach State), Conference-USA (UAB), Horizon (Butler), Ivy (Harvard), MAC (Kent State), MAAC (Saint Peter’s), MEAC (Bethune-Cookman), Missouri Valley (Indiana State), Northeast (Long Island), Ohio Valley (Morehead State), Patriot (Bucknell), Southern (Wofford), Southland (McNeese State), Summit (Oakland), Sun Belt (Arkansas-Little Rock), SWAC (Texas Southern), WAC (Utah State)

  • Last Four In: Saint Mary’s, Boston College, Alabama, VCU
  • Last Four Out: Clemson, Virginia Tech, Missouri State, USC
  • Next Four Out: Penn State, Memphis, Colorado State, Washington State

Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Bubble Watch

AS OF MARCH 8, 2011

Bubble Breakdown and Comparison

The last weekend of college basketball’s regular season will look to settle some of the remaining at-large questions. Given what we have seen over the last few weeks, though, it is highly unlikely that that the debates will end until Selection Sunday. According to the numbers, there are 10 bids still up for grabs, with 19 teams legitimately vying for them.

  • Locks: 33
  • Automatic bids from the other conferences: 21
  • 54 Locks Overall

LOCKS

  • ACC (2): Duke, North Carolina
  • Big East (10): Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Louisville, St. John’s, Connecticut, West Virginia, Georgetown, Villanova, Cincinnati
  • Big Ten (3): Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
  • Big 12 (5): Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Missouri
  • Pac-10 (2): Arizona, UCLA
  • SEC (3): Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt
  • Atlantic-10 (2): Xavier, Temple
  • Mountain West (3): BYU, San Diego State, UNLV
  • Colonial (2): Old Dominion, George Mason
  • West Coast (1): Gonzaga

One-Bid Conferences (21): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Conference-USA, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC, WAC

Teams that need to keep winning to avoid the bubble – these bids are not up for grabs yet (4): Florida State, Tennessee, Washington, Illinois

Note: Utah State, UAB and Harvard are not included, as they are the current leaders in their respective conferences. Click the Bubble Breakdown chart for more information on these teams.

Monday, March 7, 2011

Bracket Breakdown

AS OF MARCH 7, 2011

No. 1: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame

No. 2: Duke, BYU, Texas, North Carolina

No. 3: San Diego State, Syracuse, Purdue, Florida

No. 4: Wisconsin, Louisville, St. John’s, Kentucky

No. 5: West Virginia, Connecticut, Xavier, Georgetown

No. 6: Arizona, Vanderbilt, Cincinnati, Temple

No. 7: Kansas State, Texas A&M, UCLA, Villanova

No. 8: UNLV, George Mason, Old Dominion, Missouri

No. 9: Utah State, Tennessee, Florida State, Illinois

No. 10: Washington, Richmond, Gonzaga, Georgia

No. 11: Marquette, Saint Mary’s, Michigan, Butler

No. 12: Michigan State, Colorado, Boston College, Alabama, UAB, Belmont

No. 13: Harvard, Oakland, Charleston, Iona

No. 14: Indiana State, Bucknell, Long Island, Milwaukee

No. 15: Morehead State, Kent State, Long Beach State, Northern Colorado

No. 16: UNC-Asheville, Boston University, McNeese State, Bethune-Cookman, Middle Tennessee, Texas Southern

Breakdown by Conference

  • ACC (4): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Boston College
  • Big East (11): Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Louisville, St. John’s, Connecticut, West Virginia, Georgetown, Villanova, Cincinnati, Marquette
  • Big Ten (6): Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State
  • Big 12 (6): Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Missouri, Colorado
  • Pac-10 (3): Arizona, UCLA, Washington
  • SEC (6): Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama
  • Atlantic-10 (3): Xavier, Temple, Richmond
  • Mountain West (3): BYU, San Diego State, UNLV
  • Colonial (2): George Mason, Old Dominion
  • Horizon (2): Milwaukee, Butler
  • West Coast (2): Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga

One-Bid Conferences (20): America East (Boston University), Atlantic Sun (Belmont), Big Sky (Northern Colorado), Big South (UNC-Asheville), Big West (Long Beach State), Conference-USA (UAB), Ivy (Harvard), MAC (Kent State), MAAC (Iona), MEAC (Bethune-Cookman), Missouri Valley (Indiana State), Northeast (Long Island), Ohio Valley (Morehead State), Patriot (Bucknell), Southern (Charleston), Southland (McNeese State), Summit (Oakland), Sun Belt (Middle Tennessee), SWAC (Texas Southern), WAC (Utah State)

  • Last Four In: Michigan State, Colorado, Boston College, Alabama
  • Last Four Out: Virginia Tech, Clemson, Missouri State, VCU
  • Next Four Out: USC, Penn State, Baylor, Memphis

Friday, March 4, 2011

Bubble Watch

AS OF MARCH 4, 2011

Bubble Breakdown and Comparison

The last weekend of college basketball’s regular season will look to settle some of the remaining at-large questions. Given what we have seen over the last few weeks, though, it is highly unlikely that that the debates will end until Selection Sunday. According to the numbers, there are 12 bids still up for grabs, with 17 teams legitimately vying for them:

Locks: 32

Automatic bids from the other conferences: 22

54 Locks Overall

  • ACC (2): Duke, North Carolina
  • Big East (10): Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Louisville, Connecticut, Villanova, Syracuse, St. John’s, West Virginia, Cincinnati
  • Big Ten (3): Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
  • Big 12 (5): Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kansas State
  • Pac-10 (2): Arizona, UCLA
  • SEC (3): Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky
  • Atlantic-10 (2): Xavier, Temple
  • Mountain West (3): San Diego State, BYU, UNLV
  • Colonial (2): George Mason, Old Dominion

One-Bid Conferences (22): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Conference-USA, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC, WAC, West Coast

Teams that need to keep winning to avoid the bubble – these bids are not up for grabs yet (2): Florida State, Tennessee

Note: Saint Mary’s, Utah State, Missouri State and UAB are not included, as they are the current leaders in their respective conferences. Click the Bubble Breakdown chart for more information on these teams.

Bracket Breakdown

AS OF MARCH 4, 2011

No. 1: Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Kansas, Duke

No. 2: Notre Dame, Purdue, Texas, BYU

No. 3: San Diego State, Syracuse, Wisconsin, North Carolina

No. 4: Florida, Louisville, Georgetown, St. John’s

No. 5: Kentucky, Connecticut, Vanderbilt, Arizona

No. 6: West Virginia, Xavier, Texas A&M, Kansas State

No. 7: Temple, Villanova, Missouri, UNLV

No. 8: George Mason, UCLA, Old Dominion, Cincinnati

No. 9: Tennessee, Florida State, Utah State, Washington

No. 10: Illinois, Georgia, Marquette, Michigan State

No. 11: Richmond, Saint Mary’s, Butler, Gonzaga

No. 12: Michigan, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Colorado, Missouri State, UAB

No. 13: Princeton, Belmont, Oakland, Charleston

No. 14: Fairfield, Bucknell, Long Island, Milwaukee

No. 15: Coastal Carolina, Vermont, Kent State, Long Beach State

No. 16: Florida Atlantic, Murray State, Northern Colorado, Bethune-Cookman, McNeese State, Texas Southern

Breakdown by Conference

  • ACC (5): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Boston College, Virginia Tech
  • Big East (11): Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Louisville, Georgetown, St. John’s, Connecticut, West Virginia, Villanova, Cincinnati, Marquette
  • Big Ten (6): Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Michigan
  • Big 12 (6): Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Missouri, Colorado
  • Pac-10 (3): Arizona, UCLA, Washington
  • SEC (5): Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia
  • Atlantic-10 (3): Xavier, Temple, Richmond
  • Mountain West (3): BYU, San Diego State, UNLV
  • Colonial (2): George Mason, Old Dominion
  • Horizon (2): Milwaukee, Butler
  • West Coast (2): Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga

One-Bid Conferences (20): America East (Vermont), Atlantic Sun (Belmont), Big Sky (Northern Colorado), Big South (Coastal Carolina), Big West (Long Beach State), Conference-USA (UAB), Ivy (Princeton), MAC (Kent State), MAAC (Fairfield), MEAC (Bethune-Cookman), Missouri Valley (Missouri State), Northeast (Long Island), Ohio Valley (Murray State), Patriot (Bucknell), Southern (Charleston), Southland (McNeese State), Summit (Oakland), Sun Belt (Florida Atlantic), SWAC (Texas Southern), WAC (Utah State)

  • Last Four In: Michigan, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Colorado
  • Last Four Out: Clemson, Colorado State, Baylor, Alabama
  • Next Four Out: Memphis, Maryland, Washington State, Nebraska

Road to Selection Sunday

Welcome back to another year of our popular feature, "Road to Selection Sunday". Basically, it is a recap of the past couple of days in college basketball, usually the weekend that was just completed. It will go over the teams on the bubble that helped or hurt themselves, teams in the NCAA Tournament whose seed is rising and falling, and much more.

We got a late start on this feature this season, so let’s not waste any time getting right into it. Here is a look at all the teams that were affected by this week’s results.

Note: We will be releasing a complete Bubble Watch and Bracket Breakdown later today.

Teams who moved up into lock status:

Kansas State: Winners in six of their last seven, the Wildcats clinched a bid by beating Texas on the road on Monday.

Cincinnati: The Big East is a lock for 10 bids now that the Bearcats are safely in the Dance after beating Marquette on the road.

Teams close to locking up bids to the NCAA Tournament:

Florida State: The Seminoles lost to North Carolina on Wednesday, but they are proving they are an NCAA team without Chris Singleton.

Tennessee: With the soft bubble, the Volunteers just needed to avoid bad losses – they did that by holding off South Carolina.

Washington: The Huskies can’t make NCAA reservations just yet, but last night’s win over UCLA brings them closer.

Teams on the bubble that helped themselves:

Boston College: The Eagles completed a sweep of Virginia Tech on Wednesday, dominating the Hokies on the road.

Michigan State: Heading into this weekend’s showdown with Michigan, the Spartans destroyed Iowa in the second half.

Utah State: The Aggies nearly blew it against New Mexico State, but made clutch shots down the stretch for the win.

Richmond: The Spiders also just need to avoid bad losses, and they continue to do that. They have won seven of eight.

Georgia: The Bulldogs now have nine SEC wins after beating South Carolina and LSU – they lack bad losses.

Teams on the bubble that hurt themselves:

Illinois: I’m not sure the Illini have any chance of missing the NCAA Tournament, but they’re playing with fire down the stretch.

Alabama: The Crimson Tide compounded their bad loss at Ole Miss by getting blown out in the second half at Florida.

Baylor: The Bears couldn’t carry the momentum of a win over Texas A&M into the week, losing at Oklahoma State.

Virginia Tech: Another team that had a major letdown, the Hokies followed up a Duke win with a home loss to Boston College.

Clemson: The Tigers had their chances against Duke, but they couldn’t get a win at the end. Now they need to beat Va. Tech.

Memphis: The Tigers are slowly falling out of the conversation, as they have lost three of their last four, including at East Carolina.

Colorado: The Buffaloes got back in the mix with a win over Texas, but they followed it up with a loss to Iowa State.

Marquette: The Golden Eagles will likely be the Big East’s 11th team, but they hurt themselves with a loss to Cincinnati.

Teams trying to work themselves into the at-large conversation:

Nebraska: The Cornhuskers were left for dead (rightfully so), but they can get to .500 in the Big 12 vs. Colorado this weekend.

Oklahoma State: The Cowboys have some quality wins and knocked off Baylor on Tuesday to give themselves a chance.

UAB: Although Conference-USA is likely a one-bid league, the Blazers now have a top-30 RPI and could be league champs.

Teams falling from the at-large conversation:

Maryland: The Terrapins are now 1-9 against the top-50 of the RPI and can only max out at 8-8 in the ACC.

Penn State: The Nittany Lions have decent computer numbers and some good wins, but they now have 13 losses.

Teams whose seed is rising:

Arizona: A win at home over Oregon on Saturday, and the Wildcats will win the outright Pac-10 title. Great season for Sean Miller.

Syracuse: With so many Big East teams falling by the wayside, someone needs to step up. ‘Cuse has won four in a row.

North Carolina: The Tar Heels are a legitimate Final Four sleeper, and are rolling heading into Saturday’s showdown vs. Duke.

Florida: The Gators have now won seven of their last eight games, including Tuesday’s demolition of Alabama.

Teams whose seed is falling:

BYU: When you combine the Cougars’ second loss to New Mexico with the suspension of Brandon Davies, and you have some trouble.

St. John’s: It was just one loss, but the Big East could come calling after the way the Red Storm ended their loss to Seton Hall.

Villanova: The Wildcats are in a complete free fall. They have lost three in a row and seven of their last 11.

Connecticut: The Huskies have lost six of their last 10, including three of their last four. Season finale coming against Notre Dame.

Number one seeds as of today:

1. Ohio State: The Buckeyes are probably the safest lock for a No. 1 seed, especially if they beat Wisconsin this weekend.

2. Pittsburgh: The Panthers have had some losses lately, but they still have six top-25 wins and the Big East lead.

3. Kansas: The Jayhawks have the No. 1 RPI in the country and are 17-2 against the top-100. Road game at Missouri Saturday.

4. Duke: The biggest benefactor of BYU’s swoon, the Blue Devils have seven top-50 wins and can add to that at UNC.