Thursday, September 27, 2007

A Look Back at March Madness All Season's 2006-2007 Season

During the course of a season, dozens of college basketball outlets make plenty of predictions and comments regarding a variety of topics. However, not many of them--if any at all--hold themselves accountable for what they say.

March Madness All Season is different, though. I went through every article, column, and prediction I made from the 2006-2007 season, and took some of the best and worst comments I made so you, my readers, know what to expect from me. Sure, you'll get a lot of times when I put my foot in my mouth with a wrong prediction, but no matter what, I won't hide behind what I say and will open myself up for criticism.

Looking back at the 2006-2007 season, the two things that jumped out at me were that: a) my love affair with VCU and USC the entire season worked out well for me in March; and b) saying Florida wouldn't win the National Championship simply because teams don't repeat anymore was absolutely absurd.

Hopefully, I provide more of the type-A prediction this season. Anyway, take a look back and prepare for Monday, October 1st, when March Madness All Season's 2007-2008 preview begins.

Preseason Preview of 2006-2007 Season

Preseason Top 25:
BAD: LSU #4, Arizona #9, Alabama #10, Syracuse #14, Connecticut #17, Washington #18, Wichita State #19
GOOD: UNC, Florida, and Kansas 1-2-3; Wisconsin, UCLA, and Georgetown 6-7-8

-Kevin Durant as the Freshman of the Year, Tyler Hansbrough Player of the Year

- Bad All-American picks: Ronald Steele, Glen Davis, Dominic James, Joseph Jones, Jermareo Davidson

- Bracket Breakdown: No Butler (7th in the Horizon); No Oregon or Maryland (both last four out); correctly had Massachusetts and New Mexico State second in their conferences (right on the bubble); had Arkansas, Missouri State, Mississippi State on the bubble; no Vanderbilt

37 of 65 teams overall

- Butler wasn’t even in my Top 25 non-BCS teams, neither was Davidson, UNLV, or Drexel

- Called Virginia, Virginia Tech, Maryland, USC, and Oregon sleepers

- Wrote Clemson was a potential spoiler (it almost worked out); also called Purdue and Vanderbilt potential spoilers

- No Stephen Curry or Jeremy Wise on my impact freshmen list

November 12, 2006
“Michigan State is going to struggle offensively in a big way.”
“Arkansas could be a potential NCAA Tournament team.”

November 26, 2006

“Tennessee could be good later on, but they are not a postseason team right now.”
“Georgia Tech reminds me a lot of last year’s Memphis team…Tech could be very, very good.”
“Don’t sleep on Iowa State or Missouri.”
“Purdue is not an NCAA Tournament team.”
“Washington looks like a Pac-10 contender.”

December 3, 2006
“North Carolina State could get a few surprising wins in the ACC.”
“Is Wichita State a top ten team? They sure have played like one.”

VCU-related comments
December 1, 2006: “Virginia Commonwealth could surprise in a wide-open CAA.”
December 3, 2006: “VCU validated the fact that they could be a sleeper in the CAA this season…B.A. Walker and Eric Maynor form an excellent backcourt.”
January 26, 2007: “VCU is rolling along…they have an outstanding three-man backcourt in B.A. Walker, Jesse Pellot-Rosa, and Eric Maynor.”
February 16, 2007: “VCU is a real sleeper for March.”
March 2, 2007: “Eric Maynor is a terrific point guard who can get into the lane on anyone.”

December 15, 2006
“Baylor is a potential sleeper to be a bubble team come March.”

December 26, 2006
“SMU could make a run at the #2 spot in Conference-USA behind Memphis.”

December 29, 2006
“Saint Louis is poised to be a favorite in the Atlantic-10.”
“Washington State will compete for an at-large bid.”

January 3, 2007
“Louisville is nowhere near an NCAA Tournament contender.”
“Can we please take Clemson for real now?”

January 5, 2007
“If Penn State pulls this off, they could start thinking about finishing in the upper division of the conference.”
“Both Wichita State and Missouri State should be in the NCAA Tournament come March.”

January 10, 2007

Wrote Florida State would be the bust in the ACC and Washington in the Pac-10; called USC a sleeper; said to watch Arkansas in the SEC Tournament

January 11, 2007
Named Daequan Cook the best sixth man in the country.

January 12, 2007
“Georgetown, while still a contender, is nowhere near Pittsburgh.”

January 16, 2007
Correctly predicted 14 of the 25 non-BCS conference champions
“Winthrop is a big-time sleeper come March.”
“Barring a complete collapse, Air Force is in.”
“Stephen Curry is the best freshman you haven’t heard of.”

January 19, 2007
“Keep an eye on Davidson freshman Stephen Curry—he can really light it up.”

January 23, 2007
Named Arizona and Marquette as teams that could get to the Final Four—but not Georgetown

January 30, 2007
Wrote not to trust Oklahoma State, Marquette, or Duke in March, but also said the same about Ohio State and Memphis
Wrote not to overlook USC or Southern Illinois in March

February 2, 2007
“UNLV is one of the best least-talked about teams in the country.”

February 22, 2007
Wrote that North Carolina would tie with Virginia for the ACC title

Championship Week
Correctly predicted 17 of the 30 conference tournament champions

Selection Sunday
63 of 65 teams correct; 24 teams seeded correctly; 50 seeded within one seed line

NCAA Tournament Preview

- None of my major conference sleepers made it past the second round
- Wisconsin, Washington State, and Duke all lost in the first weekend—called them “busts”
- VCU was my one Cinderella pick for the Tournament, of course
- “Winthrop is going to be this year’s sexy upset pick.”

Did not have a very successful NCAA Tournament bracket: only 22 first-round picks right, with 10 Sweet Sixteen teams correct, 7 Elite Eight teams correct, one Final Four team, no finalists

Went 43-20 in my game-by-game picks as the Tournament went on

Went 477-212 on the season, good for a 69% accuracy rate—falling short of my 70% goal


  1. What's a surprise? That I posted some of my best and worst predictions from last year?

    Or that I actually left myself open to criticism and didn't change my picks after someone questions them like you do?

  2. Ouch...I'm hurt. Oh, wait...I'm not! Ha.

  3. Oh man, I was on the "Florida can't repeat" train as well. Had to do like THREE mea culpa posts after they got it again.

  4. I knew from the beginning Florida was the favorite. I had no doubt they'd at least make it back to the NC game. Amazing how much they were able to do.

  5. Very fair analysis, Jeff. Keep up the good work man.