Thursday, February 28, 2008

Bubble Watch


Bubble Breakdown and Comparison

According to the numbers, there are 14 bids still up for grabs, with 29 teams seriously vying for them:

Locks: 25
Automatic bids from the other conferences: 19
44 Locks Overall

ACC (2): North Carolina, Duke
Big East (5): Georgetown, Connecticut, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame
Big Ten (4): Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State
Big 12 (2): Kansas, Texas
Pac-10 (3): UCLA, Stanford, Washington State
SEC (2): Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Atlantic-10 (1): Xavier
Conference-USA (1): Memphis
Horizon (1): Butler
Missouri Valley (1): Drake
Mountain West (1): BYU
West Coast (2): Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga

One-Bid Conferences (19): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Summit, Sun Belt, WAC

Teams that need to keep winning to avoid the bubble – these bids are not up-for-grabs yet (7):
Clemson, Miami (Fl.), Pittsburgh, Kansas State, Arizona, USC, Mississippi State

Note: Teams like Kent State, South Alabama, Davidson and VCU are not included, as they are the current leaders in their respective conferences


  1. I strongly disagree with the three Big 12 teams being listed as bubble teams. Each of them has a few major wins no bad losses (other than Oklahoma vs. Colorado), and better overall profiles than any other team you listed. I would definitely consider all three of those teams solidly in.

  2. If I had to take five of those teams off that list and move them to the "in" category, I would likely take the three Big 12 teams, UNLV and West Virginia.

    However, I don't think either of those teams is "solidly in." Oklahoma is below .500 in the Big 12, and the Sooners have lost their last two games by a combined 35 points on the road.

    A&M rebounded in a major way with its win over Tech, but they played a weak non-conference schedule and they've had some questionable losses of late.

    Baylor is certainly not solidly in just yet. The Bears are 3-7 against the top-50 and are 4-6 in their last 10 games. They have just one good non-conference win on a slate highlighted with mediocre-to-bad teams.

    While I do think all three will get a bid, I don't think any of them are "in" just yet.

  3. Cal is 15-11 with an rpi in the 80's, they are not bubble material

  4. Yup...after last night's loss, the Golden Bears are all but dead.

  5. I love this time of year - March Madness. It seems like everyone, from co-workers to grandma is in an office pool. Beside the standard bracket pool for the Men's NCAA Tournament, I found a supplement last year...

    There's a real fun alternative that takes little time to play. There's a public game and you can create private office pools for the Men's tourney, the Women's tourney and the NIT. It seems super simple with little to do but it's harder than it seems. Check it out:

    Men's NCAA:

    Women's NCAA:

    Men's NIT:

    Good Luck!!!