Who's In, Who's Out?

After a week or so of conference tournaments and almost four days of major conference tourneys, the field of 65 is beginning to take shape. According to our calculations, the breakdown is as follows:

Locks (There is no way these teams don't make the NCAA Tournament):
ACC (3): North Carolina, Duke, Clemson
Big East (7): Georgetown, Louisville, Connecticut, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, West Virginia
Big Ten (4): Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State
Big 12 (3): Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma
Pac-10 (4): UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC
SEC (4): Tennessee, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Arkansas
Atlantic-10 (2): Xavier, Temple
Colonial (1): George Mason
Conference-USA (1): Memphis
Missouri Valley (1): Drake
Mountain West (2): BYU, UNLV
Sun Belt (1): Western Kentucky
West Coast (3): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, San Diego

Automatic bids from one-bid leagues: 18

That adds up to 52 teams, leaving 11 spots still open.

Throw in Miami (Fl.), Kansas State, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Baylor and Saint Joseph’s, who are likely to get bids, and that leaves 5 spots left.

The teams fighting for those 5 spots, realistically, are:
Virginia Tech
Villanova
Ohio State
Arizona
Arizona State
Oregon
Massachusetts
Dayton
VCU
Illinois State
South Alabama

Moreover, these 11 teams have to hope that Illinois doesn’t win its conference tournament tomorrow, taking away an available at-large berth. The Illini aren’t getting a bid unless they win the automatic bid. They should probably hope Georgia loses to Mississippi State tonight or to Arkansas tomorrow, as well.