Bubble Watch

AS OF MARCH 5, 2009

Bubble Breakdown and Comparison

Welcome back to the Bubble Watch. As we stated a couple of weeks ago, it will look at every team in the at-large mix hoping to grab one of the last spots for the NCAA Tournament. With just a few days left in the regular season in the major conferences, it seems that no bubble teams want an at-large bid to the Big Dance. Could that open up a spot for a potential sleeper? We’ll have to wait and see. According to the numbers, there are 10 bids still up for grabs, with 22 teams seriously vying for them:

Locks: 29
Automatic bids from the other conferences: 20
49 Locks Overall

ACC (5): North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State
Big East (7): Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, West Virginia, Syracuse
Big Ten (3): Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois
Big 12 (4): Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas
Pac-10 (4): Washington, UCLA, Arizona State, California
SEC (1): LSU
Atlantic-10 (1): Xavier
Conference-USA (1): Memphis
Horizon (1): Butler
Mountain West (1): Utah
West Coast (1): Gonzaga

One-Bid Conferences (20): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Ivy, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC, WAC

Teams that need to keep winning to avoid the bubble – these bids are not up for grabs yet (6): Boston College, Ohio State**, Minnesota**, Tennessee, Dayton, BYU

** In the most precarious position of the group

Teams waiting to get into the Bubble Watch; not in the conversation just yet: Tulsa, Niagara, Northwestern, Auburn, Washington State

Teams fading from the Watch: UAB, Temple, Notre Dame, Georgetown

Note: Utah State, Davidson and Siena are not included in the Bubble Watch, as they are the current leaders in their respective conferences

Ranking the Bubble Teams:
1. UNLV
2. Wisconsin
3. South Carolina
4. Oklahoma State
5. Arizona
6. Saint Mary’s
7. Creighton
8. Texas A&M
9. Michigan
10. Penn State
11. Providence
12. Maryland
13. New Mexico
14. San Diego State
15. Miami (Fl.)
16. Virginia Tech
17. Kentucky
18. Florida
19. Kansas State
20. Rhode Island
21. Cincinnati
22. USC