Saturday, March 14, 2009

Who's In, Who's Out?

After a week or so of conference tournaments and almost four days of major conference tourneys, the field of 65 is beginning to take shape. According to our calculations, the breakdown is as follows:

Locks (There is no way these teams don't make the NCAA Tournament):
ACC (5): North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State
Big East (7): Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Louisville, Villanova, Syracuse, Marquette, West Virginia
Big Ten (4): Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State
Big 12 (5): Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma State
Pac-10 (4): Washington, UCLA, Arizona State, California
SEC (2): LSU, Tennessee
Atlantic-10 (2): Xavier, Temple/Duquesne
Horizon (2): Butler, Cleveland State
Missouri Valley (1): Northern Iowa
Mountain West (2): Utah, BYU
West Coast (1): Gonzaga

Automatic bids from one-bid leagues: 20

That adds up to 55 teams, leaving 10 spots still open.

Throw in Boston College, Wisconsin, Texas A&M and Dayton, who are likely to get bids, and that leaves 6 spots left.

The teams fighting for those 6 spots, realistically, are:
Penn State
South Carolina
San Diego State
New Mexico
Saint Mary’s

Out of this group, Michigan and San Diego State are in the best shape, while New Mexico has a tenuous, at best, spot on the list. UNLV, Kansas State, Davidson,
Rhode Island, Tulsa, Providence and Virginia Tech are already likely out.

Moreover, these 13 teams are already uneasy that the Atlantic-10 final is between Temple and Duquesne. They also have to hope that Tulsa doesn’t upset Memphis in the Conference-USA final, and Baylor doesn't continue its epic run against Missouri in the Big 12 final. Plus, it would help if Utah State won the WAC championship and Temple won the Atlantic-10 title, since they would join the bubble mix with a loss. Moreover, they might have to start worrying about Mississippi State winning the SEC final, and then also hope that USC, Maryland and Auburn don’t go on to win their conference’s automatic bids. San Diego State is another team that the bubble teams are rooting against, although the Aztecs could be in already.

1 comment:

  1. There is only 1 error in your hole bracket.... MICHIGAN IS IN 100% for sure... There in no way on the bubble... You might as well add it to the list with BC Wisconsin etc.. There should only be 4 spots left with michigan and USC moving up...