Thursday, February 19, 2009

Bubble Watch


Bubble Breakdown and Comparison

Welcome back to the Bubble Watch. As we stated last week, it will look at every team in the at-large mix hoping to grab one of the last spots for the NCAA Tournament. As the season enters its final three and a half weeks, it is time for teams on the fence to distinguish themselves from each other with impressive stretch runs. This week had bubble games galore, including almost 20 contests last night that could have had an impact on the at-large picture. With the middle of conferences becoming increasingly crowded, it is going to be an interesting final few weeks. Of course there is still plenty of basketball left to be played. According to the numbers, there are 11 bids still up for grabs, with 30 teams vying for them:

Note: Starting next week, we will try to limit the number of serious bubble teams in the mix.

Locks: 20
Automatic bids from the other conferences: 22
42 Locks Overall

ACC (4): North Carolina, Clemson, Duke, Wake Forest
Big East (5): Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova
Big Ten (3): Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois
Big 12 (3): Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri
Pac-10 (3): Washington, UCLA, Arizona State
SEC (0):
Atlantic-10 (1): Xavier
Mountain West (0):
West Coast (1): Gonzaga

One-Bid Conferences (22): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Conference USA, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC, WAC

Teams that need to keep winning to avoid the bubble – these bids are not up for grabs yet (12): Florida State, Syracuse, West Virginia, Ohio State, Minnesota**, Texas, California, Arizona**, LSU, Tennessee**, Dayton, Utah

** In the most precarious position of the group

Note: Utah State, Davidson and Siena are not included, as they are the current leaders in their respective conferences


  1. you forgot Michigan or are there wins over Duke, UCLA, Purdue meaningless?

  2. Yes. They are meaningless.

  3. A Michigan win at Minnesota along w/ a win in the B10 tourney is an NCAA birth. Wins vs Duke, UCLA, Illinois, Minnesota (2), Purdue, Northwestern (2). There is no way they cannot get into the tourney.