Sunday, March 12, 2006

Road to Selection Sunday

Happy Selection Sunday, folks. The most important date of the college basketball season is upon us. With about five hours left until the NCAA Tournament is revealed, the Field of 65 is almost filled. After Nevada and San Diego State won their conference tournaments and a bid to the tourney, bubble teams across the nation became a little less nervous. Those two clubs may have taken two bids away from the squads on the tournament fence had they lost. The last two or three days of the major conference tournaments have made the teams going to the Big Dance fairly obvious, other than the last three or four spots. The breakdown of the tournament as of 12:40 PM is as follows:

ACC (4): Duke, North Carolina, Boston College, North Carolina State
Big East (7): Villanova, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Georgetown, Marquette, Syracuse
Big Ten (6): Ohio State, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana
Big 12 (3): Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma
Pac-10 (3): UCLA, Washington, Arizona
SEC (5): LSU, Tennessee, Florida, Arkansas, Kentucky
Missouri Valley (2): Wichita State, Southern Illinois
Colonial (1): UNC-Wilmington
Conference-USA (1): Memphis
Atlantic-10 (2): George Washington, Xaver

Automatic bids from one-bid leagues: 21

That adds up to 55 teams, leaving 10 spots still open.

The teams in the mix for those bids are:
UAB- Second in Conference-USA, win over Memphis will likely get them a bid.
Texas A&M- Should get in. 10 wins in Big 12 plus victory over Texas should do it.
California- Third place in Pac-10 and berth in Pac-10 title game should get them a bid.
Northern Iowa- Great non-conference profile mixed with solid wins all over. Will get in.
Bradley- 7-6 vs. Top 50, solid RPI, but 3 sub-100 losses and no great non-conference wins.
Alabama- RPI in the 50s plus they lost their final two games. Should get in, but they have to hope South Carolina doesn't win today.
Seton Hall- Mix of great wins with bad losses. If Big East gets 9, they are in.
Cincinnati- Probably ahead of Seton Hall because they lack the bad losses the Pirates have. Should be safely in.
Missouri State- No great non-conference wins, but they have an excellent RPI and 12-6 MVC record.
Creighton- Didn't finish strongly; point guard Josh Dotzler's availability up in the air. Behind Missouri State right now.
Hofstra- Awful non-conference SOS could end up killing them. Beat George Mason twice in two weeks.
George Mason- Tony Skinn's one-game suspension could hurt them. Two losses to Hofstra may leave them out as well.
Michigan- 2-7 in last nine games and no great non-conference wins leaves them sweating until tonight.
Florida State- Only good win this season, but 9-7 record and win over Duke could give them a bid.
Utah State- 7-5 against Top 50, but 3 losses against sub-100 teams and only one Top 50 win.

Who gets in? UAB, Texas A&M, California, Northern Iowa, Bradley, Cincinnati, and Alabama (if South Carolina doesn't win) should be in.

That leaves three spots left. Who gets them? Check out my complete bracket at 5:00 PM to find out.


  1. Alabama gets in if South Carolina loses? What kind of logic is that? There's no limit on how many teams can make the tournament from a conference.

  2. I didn't say that would happen...the committee could think that way though.