Who's In? Who's Out?

After a week or so of conference tournaments and three days of major conference tourneys, the field of 65 is beginning to take shape. According to our calculations, the breakdown is as follows:

Locks (There is no way these teams don't make the NCAA Tournament):
ACC (4): Duke, North Carolina, Boston College, North Carolina State
Big East (7): Villanova, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Georgetown, Marquette, Syracuse
Big Ten (6): Ohio State, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana
Big 12 (3): Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma
Pac-10 (3): UCLA, Washington, Arizona
SEC (5): LSU, Tennessee, Florida, Arkansas, Kentucky
Missouri Valley (2): Wichita State, Southern Illinois
Colonial (1): UNC-Wilmington
Conference-USA (1): Memphis
Atlantic-10 (2): George Washington, St. Joseph's/Xaver

Automatic bids from one-bid leagues: 21

That adds up to 55 teams, leaving 10 spots still open.

Throw in California, Northern Iowa, Bradley, and UAB, who are VERY likely to get bids, and that leaves 6 spots left.

The teams fighting for those 6 spots, realistically, are:
Alabama
Texas A&M
Cincinnati
Seton Hall
Missouri State
Hofstra
George Mason
Michigan
Creighton
Florida State

Moreover, these 10 teams have to hope that South Carolina (SEC), Wake Forest (ACC), Wyoming (MWC) and Utah State (WAC) don't win their conference tournaments, taking away an available at-large berth. These teams are unlikely to get bids unless they win their conference's automatic bid.